Modeling Migration: Analyzing Migration Histories from a San Blas Cuna Community

Abstract

This paper discusses the cultural context of migration in a community in eastern San Blas, Panama, describes recent changes in absence rates for male and female age groups, and develops a simple stochastic model for residential change during 1970-71 and 1975-76. Rates of absence have risen markedly among males: in 1968, about 10% of the male labor froce resided outside the community; in 1977, absentees accounted for over 40% of the male labor force. Rates of female absence have remained extremely low. The rate of out-migration for the community as a whole, however, has fluctuated between 4.3% and 4.7% between 1965 and 1976, while the rate of return migration has increased. On the average, the number of years spent in wage work away from the reservation was greater for average households than for wealthy ones. This difference may be linked to the relatively limited amounts of land for staple crops available to average households. Classical Markov chain models assume transition probabilities are uniform for a whole population, but recent studies have used multiple regression to estimate the effects of individual characteristics on transition probabilities. Observed frequencies are outside the range where ordinary least squares techniques are appropriate, so this paper uses minimum logit chi-square regression to estimate the effects of age, sex, education, and position within the household on the log-odds on remaining within the community or remaining outside it. The results agree with what we know of community control over women and over men working in the households of their fathers-in-law.