Modernization, Cultural Heterogeneity, and Civil Strife

Abstract

Six theoretical models are described, each of which purports to explain how modernization and/or other variables are related to civil strife. Using aggregate data (ca. 1965) from those 103 independent nations having populations of over one million, this study seeks to determine (a) which model best predicts patterns of correlation between modernization, cultural heterogeneity, growth rate, and civil strife and (b) which model best predicts the magnitude of civil strife. Results indicate that a Political Organization model is superior with respect to both types of predictions. The Political Organization model is predicated on the assumption that discontent (whatever its basis) is only a necessary, not a sufficient condition for civil strife. In the Political Organization model, organization, leadership, and coalitions are postulated as the sufficient conditions mediating discontent and civil strife.