Abstract
This research was conducted to reveal the determinants of Indonesia's coffee exports to the USA. In addition, it has been determined as the sub-objectives of the research to reveal the reasons for the recent decline in coffee exports and to try to produce alternative policies to increase the value of coffee exports from Indonesia to the USA. In this research, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis estimation method was implemented by using EViews 12 program. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the exchange rate of the US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah and the annual inflation rate of Indonesia did not have a statistically significant effect on the value of coffee exports in both the short and long run. In addition, variables of world coffee prices, US coffee consumption, world tea prices, Indonesia's coffee export prices to the USA, terms of trade, trade openness, and Indonesia's coffee planting area were found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, it has been determined that the US coffee consumption and Indonesia's coffee export price to the USA have a positive effect in the short term, but have a negative effect in the long term. Among all the independent variables, it was revealed that the Indonesian coffee planting area variable had the greatest effect. Therefore, it can be stated that policymakers should try to address the challenges of exporting to increase the export value of Indonesian coffee to the US and be careful not to overly focus on exchange rate fixing or inflation targeting as these two variables have no significant impact on export value. In addition, paying attention to the issue of product development that increases added value can be expressed as the most important of the suggestions that can be made based on the results obtained.
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