Fraud Detection of the Electricity Consumption by combining Deep Learning and Statistical Methods

Abstract

An important issue for the electricity distribution companies is the non-technical loss (NTL), also known as electricity fraud. This issue has a significant impact on the economies of all countries in the world. In this context, we studied the problem of the imbalance between the electrical energy invoiced and the electrical energy supplied within the Algerian economic sector. This article presents an approach to detecting electrical fraud using a combination of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and robust Exponential and Holt-Winters Smoothing (EHWS) methods in order to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of fraud detection mechanisms. The proposed approach investigates the fraudulent behaviour of electricity consumers and unfolds in several key phases. In the first step, monthly consumption forecasts are made and the model with the most accurate results is selected. Then, the phase of detection of anomalies in economic meters and detection of cases of fraud by economic customers begins. This phase relies on the robust exponential and Holt-Winters Smoothing methods for uncovering irregular patterns indicative of potential fraud instances. The proposed model was trained and evaluated, and several experiments were carried out using a large dataset of real users from the economic sector. The dataset comprised approximately 2,000 customers and encompassed 14 years of monthly electricity usage in Bejaia, Algeria. The results of the experiments demonstrate promising performance, underscoring the efficacy of our proposed solution in effectively detecting instances of fraud, leading us to conclude that this proposition is robust and can help improve the accuracy of locating abnormal consumer behaviour and increase the company's profits.