ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF <i>GALINSOGA </i>RUIZ ET PAV. SPECIES IN THE NATIVE AND CAUCASIAN PART OF THE INVASIVE RANGES

Abstract

Adaptations of and developed in the tropical climate of the Mexican mountain region determine largely the predicted distribution of the species in the Caucasus. The complex factor of humidity is the main factor determining the potential distribution of and in the Caucasus (82 and 48% of the contribution in the Maxent models). Temperature and orographic ENVIREM predictors also play a significant role in the distribution of . The predicted range center of is located in the humid climate of the Black Sea coast, - in the relatively moisture foothill and mid-mountain regions of the Western Caucasus. The lowest probability of finding both species is predicted in the lowland (steppe) regions and in the arid climate of the Eastern Caucasus. The invasive potential of and in the Caucasus is similar: a high degree of overlapping (Schoener's D = 0.76) and the same width (Levins' B - 0.91 and 0.92) of ecological niches, their visual overlapping in the orthogonal space of the analyzed ecological factors. Differences in the potential spatial distribution of the species in the Caucasus are due to their biological characteristics (greater or lesser sensitivity to water regime and orographic factors).