Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To investigate how risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among patients with type 1 diabetes has changed over time and further how the risk is affected by age, sex, and time period of diagnosis of diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A cohort including all patients <30 years old diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in Finland in 1965–2011 was followed until start of renal replacement therapy, death, or end of follow-up at the end of 2013. Altogether, 29,906 patients were included. The main outcome was cumulative risk of ESRD, accounting for death as a competing risk. RESULTS The patients were followed up for a median of 20 years. During 616,403 patient-years, 1,543 ESRD cases and 4,185 deaths were recorded. The cumulative risk of ESRD was 2.2% after 20 years and 7.0% after 30 years from the diabetes diagnosis. The relative risk of ESRD was 0.13 (95% CI 0.08–0.22) among patients diagnosed in 1995–2011 compared with those diagnosed in 1965–1979. Patients <5 years old at the time of diagnosis had the lowest risk of ESRD after diagnosis. With the cumulative risk of ESRD estimated from time of birth, the patients aged 5–9 years at diabetes diagnosis were at highest risk. CONCLUSIONS The cumulative risk of ESRD has decreased markedly during the past five decades. This highlights the importance of modern treatment of diabetes and diabetic nephropathy.