Is blood glucose predictable from previous values? A solicitation for data.

Abstract

An important question about blood glucose control in diabetes is, Can present and future blood glucose values be predicted from recent blood glucose history? If this is possible, new continuous blood glucose monitoring technologies under development may lead to qualitatively better therapeutic capabilities. Not only could continuous monitoring technologies alert a user when a hypoglycemic episode or other blood glucose excursion is underway, but measurements may also provide sufficient information to predict near-future blood glucose values. A predictive capability based only on recent blood glucose history would be advantageous because there would be no need to involve models of glucose and insulin distribution, with their inherent requirement for detailed accounting of vascular glucose loads and insulin availability. Published data analyzed here indicate that blood glucose dynamics are not random, and that blood glucose values can be predicted, at least for the near future, from frequently sampled previous values. Data useful in further exploring this concept are limited, however, and an appeal is made for collection of more.