Documenting major drivers of trends in trade balance for SADC region amid the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA)

Abstract

This study scrutinises drivers of trade performance in the SADC region amid the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).  Where the short and long-run impact, through the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and forecasts through IRF of external debt, debt service cost, GDP per capita, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Terms of Trade (TOT) on the trade balance is interrogated. In the long run, external debt, debt service costs, and GDP per capita negatively influenced the trade balance. TOT was found to be an insignificant predictor. This implies that these variables were among the significant drivers of trade balance while the impact of terms of trade is negligible in the region. FDI positively impacts regional trade balance, which informs us that it acts as a stimulus for trade in the area. Short-run results revealed that external debt and GDP per capita affected trade balance positively, while debt service costs, FDI and TOT were found to have a negative impact. IRF results showed that shocks from external debt and per capita GDP pose a positive instant impact, while shocks from FDI and TOT were proven to worsen the trade balance in the region. The region needs an FDI stimulus.