Machine Learning Approach for Estimating Residual Stresses in Girth Welds of Topside Piping

Abstract

Abstract Residual stresses are internal self-equilibrating stresses that remain in the component even after the removal of external load. The aforementioned stress when superimposed by the operating stresses on the offshore piping, enhance the chances of fracture failure of the components. Thus, it is vital to accurately estimate the residual stresses in topside piping while performing their fitness for service (FFS) evaluation. In the present work, residual stress profiles of girth welded topside sections of P91 pipes piping are estimate using a machine learning approach. The training and testing data for machine learning is acquired from experimental measurements database by Veqter, UK. Twelve different machine learning algorithms, namely, multi-linear regression (MLR), Random Forest (RF), Gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), Gradient boosting (GB) etc. have been trained and tested. In order to compare the accuracy of the algorithms, four metrics, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Estimated Variance Score (EVS), Maximum Absolute Error (AAE), and Coefficient of Determination (R^2) are used. Gradient boosting algorithm gives the best prediction of the residual stress, which is then used to estimate the residual stress for the simulated input parameter space. In the future work authors shall utilize the residual stress predictions from Gradient boosting algorithm to train the Bayesian Network, which can then be used for estimating less conservative through-thickness residual stresses distribution over a wide range of pipe geometries (radius to thickness ratio) and welding parameters (based on heat input). Furthermore, besides topside piping, the proposed approach finds its potential applications in structural integrity assessment of offshore structures, and pressure equipment’s girth welds.