Long-Term Probability Distribution of Extreme Offshore Structural Response via an Efficient Time Simulation Method

Abstract

Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment and hence the probability distribution of the extreme values of their response to wave loading is required for their safe and economical design. To this end, the conventional simulation technique (CTS) is frequently used for predicting the probability distribution of the extreme values of response. However, this technique suffers from excessive sampling variability and hence a large number of simulated response extreme values (hundreds of simulated response records) are required to reduce the sampling variability to acceptable levels. A more efficient method (ETS) was recently introduced which takes advantage of the correlation between the extreme values of linear response and their corresponding response extreme values. The method has proved to be very efficient for both low and high-intensity sea states. In this paper, further development of this technique, which leads to more accurate estimates of the long term probability distribution of the extreme response, is reported.