The Application of the Bayesian Networks in the Human Reliability Analysis

Abstract

Analysis, assessment, and risk management are vital in the oil and gas sector — due to the potential severity of accidents with respect to human life, to the environment, and patrimony. As most of the accidents in this area are driven by human factors, the purpose of this work is to present an efficient methodology and technique for the analysis of these factors in this industry. The applied quantitative technique is based on Bayesian Networks. Finally, this article presents a study of an oil tanker operation, focusing the quantification of the human factor contribution in collision scenarios. Besides, are presented some considerations about management and organizational factors that can influence the human performance and, therefore, the collision risk.