Assessing Risk of Family Violence by Young People: Identifying Recidivism Base Rates and the Validity of the VP-SAFvR for Youth

Abstract

Police-reported incidents of youth family violence have been increasing in frequency yet limited research exists about how best to risk assess this cohort. The present study examined the validity of the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR) for Australian youth aged 10 to 24 years ( n = 4,999) reported to police for using family violence. The 6-month base rate of family violence recidivism was 24.24% for same-dyad recidivism and 35.31% for any-dyad recidivism. The VP-SAFvR demonstrated moderate discriminative validity (area under the curve [AUC] = .65) for the total sample and comparable discriminative validity across age (AUCs = .64-.67), gender (AUCs = .63-.65), and relationship (i.e., child-to-parent abuse, sibling abuse, intimate partner abuse; AUCs = .62-.65). Predictive validity was adequate at a threshold score of four for 10- to 24-year olds and most subgroups. Results demonstrate the utility of a structured risk triage tool for youth family violence.