India–China Standoff in Ladakh and China’s Dilemma

Abstract

This article seeks to provide an answer to the question which has not been explored in the relevant academic scholarship: What are the merits and demerits of China restoring status quo ante or maintaining status quo along the disputed Line of Actual Control and why? This article argues that status quo renders China multiple geopolitical, geo-economic and geostrategic advantages: restoring its 1960s claim line and tactical and strategic gains along the LAC, security of Aksai Chin and inhibiting India’s rise. However, it also creates prospects for India–China conflict/war which will curtail (a victorious) China’s quest to become the pre-eminent global power. And a defeat/stalemate in conflict/war with India will impact China’s standing in global affairs, and repercussions for Communist Party of China’s regime stability and regime survival. On the other hand, restoring status quo ante also has tactical and strategic costs, and can also have domestic political costs for President Xi Jinping.