Evaluating the Effect of Incidents on Freeway Facilities and Updating the Incident Capacity Adjustments for HCM

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of incidents on freeway segment capacity. Currently, the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) provides a look-up table linking the remaining segment capacity fraction during an incident to the total and closed number of lanes on the segment. In reality, segment capacity during an incident will tend to vary over time, with the most severe effects felt early on before any type of response is initiated, with congestion progressively improving as the appropriate incident management actions are implemented. By applying a genetic algorithm calibration method on each incident day and calibrating the incident capacity adjustment factors (CAFs), optimal time-dependent CAFs were derived that best represented the effect of incidents on the freeway segment capacity. By analyzing the optimal CAFs, the strongest relationship was revealed to be between the optimal time-dependent CAF and the temporal progression of the incident. A regression model was developed to represent this behavior. This was formulated in a manner that can directly adjust the current HCM’s fixed CAF values (for a specific lane closure configuration) for modeling incidents both in single day, seed file application, or for an entire year reliability analysis. A portion of WB I-540 in Raleigh, NC was selected as the study area in which the proposed method was tested. Between January 2014 and December 2018, the team identified 22 isolated incidents (away from the recurring congestion period) that closed one or two lanes of traffic, creating a distinct congestion pattern.