Modeling Departure Time Choice of Car Commuters in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract

Dhaka, one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world, faces severe traffic congestion leading to a loss of 3.2 million business hours per day. While peak-spreading policies hold the promise to reduce the traffic congestion levels, the absence of comprehensive data sources makes it extremely challenging to develop econometric models of departure time choices for Dhaka. This motivates this paper, which develops advanced discrete choice models of departure time choice of car commuters using secondary data sources and quantifies how level-of-service attributes (e.g., travel time), socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., type of job, income, etc.), and situational constraints (e.g., schedule delay) affect their choices. The trip diary data of commuters making home-to-work and work-to-home trips by personal car/ride-hailing services (957 and 934 respectively) have been used in this regard. Given the discrepancy between the stated travel times and those extracted using the Google Directions API, a sub-model is developed first to derive more reliable estimates of travel time throughout the day. A mixed multinomial logit model and a simple multinomial logit model are developed for outbound and return trip, respectively, to capture the heterogeneity associated with different departure time choice of car commuters. Estimation results indicate that the choices are significantly affected by travel time, schedule delay, and socio-demographic factors. The influence of type of job on preferred departure time (PDT) has been estimated using two different distributions of PDT for office employees and self-employed people (Johnson’s SB distribution and truncated normal respectively). The proposed framework could be useful in other developing countries with similar data issues.