Making and Taking Risky Decisions

Abstract

This paper is part of a comprehensive interdisciplinary study of risk taking, with a focus on foreign policy risks. The focus is on the effects of three contextual factors: (1) salience and vividness, (2) planning, and (3) commitment to a particular course of action; and their implications for risk perceptions and risk-acceptability preferences. Beginning with a brief definition of the essence of risk and the meaning of risk perception and risk acceptability, this paper proceeds to discuss the three contextual factors and concludes by pointing out their synergistic relationships. Brief examples of risky decisions of foreign military intervention serve to illustrate some of the arguments.