Risk factors for hospital death in conditions needing palliative care: Nationwide population-based death certificate study

Author:

Gomes Barbara12,Pinheiro Maria João3,Lopes Sílvia34,de Brito Maja2,Sarmento Vera P25,Lopes Ferreira Pedro67,Barros Henrique8

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal

2. Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King’s College London, London, UK

3. National School of Public Health, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

4. Public Health Research Centre, National School of Public Health, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

5. Hospital Espírito Santo de Évora, Évora, Portugal

6. Centre for Studies and Health Research of the University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal

7. Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal

8. EPIUnit, Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto, Oporto, Portugal

Abstract

Background: Most people would prefer to die at home as opposed to hospital; therefore, understanding mortality patterns by place of death is essential for health resources allocation. Aim: We examined trends and risk factors for hospital death in conditions needing palliative care in a country without integrated palliative care. Design: This is a death certificate study. We examined factors associated with hospital death using logistic regression. Setting/participants: All adults (1,045,381) who died between 2003 and 2012 in Portugal were included. We identified conditions needing palliative care from main causes of death: cancer, heart/cerebrovascular, renal, liver, respiratory and neurodegenerative diseases, dementia/Alzheimer’s/senility and HIV/AIDS. Results: Conditions needing palliative care were responsible for 70.7% deaths ( N = 738,566, median age 80); heart and cerebrovascular diseases (43.9%) and cancer (32.2%) accounted for most. There was a trend towards hospital death (standardised percentage: 56.3% in 2003, 66.7% in 2012; adjusted odds ratio: 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.04–1.04). Hospital death risk was higher for those aged 18–39 years (3.46, 3.25–3.69 vs aged 90+), decreasing linearly with age; lower in dementia/Alzheimer’s/senility versus cancer (0.13, 0.13–0.13); and higher for the married and in HIV/AIDS (3.31, 3.00–3.66). Effects of gender, working status, weekday and month of death, hospital beds availability, urbanisation level and deprivation were small. Conclusion: The upward hospital death trend and fact that being married are risk factors for hospital death suggest that a reliance on hospitals may coexist with a tradition of extended family support. The sustainability of this model needs to be assessed within the global transition pattern in where people die.

Funder

Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine,General Medicine

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