On the Divergent Trajectories of African Islamism: Explaining Salafi Non-Radicalisation in Zanzibar

Abstract

With the rise of Jihadist groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab, the theory-oriented exploration of the causes and dynamics of militant Islamist mobilisation in sub-Saharan Africa has become an important research endeavour. Existing explanatory frameworks highlight the causal relevance of multi-faceted Muslim grievances, pre-existing histories of non-Islamist political violence, and a lack of institutional regulation of Salafism in the first decades after independence. Examining the deviant case of Zanzibar, the article investigates why, despite the fact that all these conditions have been present on the islands, local Salafi activism has so far not gravitated towards Jihadism. It shows that the deeply entrenched Zanzibari two-party conflict between Tanzania’s long-standing authoritarian ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi and the oppositional Civic United Front has persistently blocked the opening up of political space for the development of sizeable militant Islamist activity. The article thus contributes to area-centred theory-building by demonstrating that vigorous electoral competition can effectively forestall the rise of Jihadism.