Predictors of African American Representation in Municipal Government

Abstract

This article presents the results of a path analysis that investigates the explanatory power of five new predictors of African American representation in city government against eight traditional predictors of representation in municipal government. The findings generally indicate that the percentage of African Americans in the city population and African American personnel directors are the most consistent predictors of African American representation in municipal civil service. African American actors in the internal environment of the personnel game—personnel directors, administrators, mayors, and council members—are also generally more predictive of African American representation in city government than variables in the external environments of municipalities.