Assessing air emissions for uncertain life-cycle scenarios via responsive systems comparison method

Abstract

A core aspect of assessing the environmental footprint of ships during the conceptual design phase is the estimation of the total air emission during the vessel life cycle. This process must take into account not only the design of an appropriate propulsion system and air emission controls but also the uncertainty related to changes in the vessel mission, such as future market conditions, new regulations, and contract opportunities. In this article, we model possible realizations of uncertain operational life-cycle scenarios using the responsive systems comparison method. This complex systems engineering method includes a strong emphasis on the structural and behavioral aspects of complexity, by mapping of function and form via machinery configuration variables and performance attributes. However, it also has the capacity to handle additional complexity aspects, discretizing the context into epoch variables, time into epochs and eras, and perception into utilities through the life cycle. We present a theoretical example related to the design of a general cargo container. The study illustrates the challenge in striking the correct balance between minimizing the emissions for an initial scenario, while providing additional performance capabilities to be efficient in the uncertainty of future market requirements.