Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk: How Did People Adapt to the Novel Risk?

Author:

Sepucha Karen1ORCID,Rudkin Aaron2,Baxter-King Ryan2,Stanton Annette L.3,Wenger Neil4,Vavreck Lynn5,Naeim Arash46

Affiliation:

1. Health Decision Sciences Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

2. Department of Political Science, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) Health Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, USA

3. Departments of Psychology and Psychiatry/Biobehavioral Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA

4. Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Sciences Research, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA

5. Departments of Political Science and Communication, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA

6. UCLA Center for SMART Health, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Abstract

Background There is limited understanding of how risk perceptions changed as the US population gained experience with COVID-19. The objectives were to examine risk perceptions and determine the factors associated with risk perceptions and how these changed over the first 18 mo of the pandemic. Methods Seven cross-sectional online surveys were fielded between May 2020 and October 2021. The study included a population-weighted sample of 138,303 US adults drawn from a market research platform, with an average 68% cooperation rate. Respondents’ risk perception of developing COVID in the next 30 days was assessed at each time point. We examined relationships between 30-day risk perceptions and various factors (including sociodemographic features, health, COVID-19 experience, political affiliation, and psychological variables). Results COVID risk perceptions were stable across the 2020 surveys and showed a significant decrease in the 2021 surveys. Several factors, including older age, worse health, high COVID worry, in-person employment type, higher income, Democratic political party affiliation (the relatively more liberal party in the United States), low tolerance of uncertainty, and high anxiety were strongly associated with higher 30-d risk perceptions in 2020. One notable change occurred in 2021, in that younger adults (aged 18–29 y) had significantly higher 30-d risk perceptions than older adults did (aged 65 y and older) after vaccination. Initial differences in perception by political party attenuated over time. Higher 30-d risk perceptions were significantly associated with engaging in preventive behaviors. Limitations Cross-sectional samples, risk perception item focused on incidence not severity. Conclusions COVID risk perceptions decreased over time. Understanding the longitudinal pattern of risk perceptions and the factors associated with 30-d risk perceptions over time provides valuable insights to guide public health communication campaigns. Highlights The study assessed COVID-19 risk perceptions at 7 time points over 18 mo of the pandemic in large samples of US adults. Risk perceptions were fairly stable until the introduction of vaccines in early 2021, at which point they showed a marked reduction. Higher COVID-19 30-d risk perceptions were significantly associated with the preventive behaviors of masking, limiting social contact, avoiding restaurants, and not entertaining visitors at home.

Funder

David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles Eli and Edythe Broad Center of Regenerative Medicine and Stem Cell Research Award Program

UCLA Center for SMART Health

Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute

NIH/NCATS

Publisher

SAGE Publications

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