The Role of Character Assessments in Presidential Approval

Abstract

Existing models of presidential approval fail to fully explain the psychology of presidential evaluation. Research on political candidates strongly suggests that character trait assessments should affect citizens' approval of the sitting president, but macro-level, longitudinal analyses generally lack appropriate measures of presidential character. A series of logistic regression models of individual-level presidential approval are estimated using National Election Studies (NES) data to address the impact or character assessments on presidential approval while controlling for economic evaluations and policy assessments. Presidential character trait assessments prove to be a significant and robust predictor of an individual's approval of the president. A final model, using a panel design, demonstrates that character assessments are causally prior to approval.