A national seismic risk model for Canada: Methodology and scientific basis

Abstract

Canada is exposed to rare but potentially destructive earthquakes that threaten densely settled metropolitan centers in many parts of the country. To assess the impacts and consequences of future natural-hazard events and help advance policy goals and objectives of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Natural Resources Canada, through a collaborative partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, produced a national seismic risk model. Developing this model has required the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian-specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and significant simplification of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the design seismic hazard values of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation’s OpenQuake Engine, probabilistic stochastic risk modeling is completed under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions to assess seismic risk at the neighborhood level for all settled areas in Canada. Output risk metrics include the expected immediate physical impacts of earthquake events such as building damage, casualties, and direct economic losses. This article documents the technical details of the modeling approach including a description of novel data sets in use, a summary of the extensive sensitivity testing undertaken, and characterization of quality control implemented in the absence of usable validating earthquake loss data. The results from this model, such as loss exceedance curves and annual average losses, provide an open, accessible and quantitative base of evidence for decision-making at local, regional, and national levels. As a large country with a complex seismic hazard model and dispersed populations, this Canadian study is unique. However, the challenges faced and solutions offered are likely to be of interest to other nations pursuing similar programs.