Tertiary Entrance Predictors of First-Year University Performance

Abstract

This paper reports a study of the extent to which the Tertiary Entrance Score (TES) and Australian Scholastic Aptitude Test (ASAT) score predict the first-year performance of the 1695 full-time students entering The University of Western Australia in 1987. The criterion of performance is successful completion of the normal load of four first-year units. Using hierarchical logit models, the relation of performance to TES and ASAT scores and to sex and field of study is established and graphically displayed. It is shown that the ASAT quantitative subscale (presently accounting for less than 1% of the TES) is comparable to the total TES score as a predictor of performance, for both humanities and science students. Implications for policy are discussed, together with suggestions for a more far-ranging study of the predictive power of Tertiary Entrance data.