Study on the reliability of accident analysis results: Taking two groups of four accident analysis references with the 24Model as samples

Abstract

Accident prevention depends on accident analysis. In order to improve the reliability of accident analysis and find the common problems related to reliability in accident analysis, two groups of four papers of master’s and doctor’s theses which applied 24Model to analysis coal mine gas explosion accident were selected as samples. The unsafe act results obtained from the analysis are compared. The results show a low consistency level, which reflects that the reliability of the output needs to be improved. Through analysis, the inconsistency of details in causes description, the difficulty in the cause description and the omission of unsafe acts are the main reasons leading to the above situation. In order to standardize the description of cause items, the components of unsafe acts were defined as “premise + action”, and seven types of premises were summarized to judge unsafe acts. In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of accident analysis, it is suggested that the current data should be taken as reference, and the taxonomy based on consequences should be established to unify unsafe act detail description level, and the corresponding computer software should be developed to assist accident analysis.