Projecting Adolescent Prevention and Treatment Need: A Novel Application Utilizing the Communities That Care Data in the State of Kansas

Abstract

This study projects substance abuse and dependence prevalence rates based on the number of early problem behaviors (tobacco, alcohol and marijuana use, and arrests prior to age 15) reported by youth who have taken part in eleven administrations of the annual Kansas Communities That Care survey following a model developed by McGue and Iacono (2005). The probability of males and females developing a substance abuse or dependence disorder at age 17 and 20 was assigned to each respondent. Projections were mapped to show county and statewide dispersions for planning purposes. Projected numbers were much higher than expected. In addition to young adult treatment need, the implications for prevention service planning became readily apparent. The findings highlight missed opportunities for indicated prevention and early intervention services and are further discussed in the context of how early intervention might alleviate demand on the treatment system as adolescents progress into young adulthood.