Hindu–Muslim Fertility Differentials in India: Indirect Estimation at the District Level from Census 2011

Abstract

This article estimates the total fertility rate (TFR) for the overall population in major Indian states by employing Arriaga variation of the P/F ratio method and the relational Gompertz model. The article uses the 2011 Census data on average parity and the current fertility schedule. Estimation of TFRs at the state level by employing Arriaga variation of the P/F ratio method strongly corresponds with Sample Registration System (SRS) compared to those derived from the relational Gompertz model. Thus, Arriaga variation of the P/F ratio method was retained to estimate the Hindu–Muslim fertility differentials for 618 districts in India from all states except Jammu and Kashmir. Comparing the TFRs obtained from the analyses with indirect estimates of TFRs from the 2001 Census, the analysis reveals that the overall fertility transition in India has been steady during the last decade. Fertility transition has been underway for both Hindus and Muslims, at a varying pace, when compared to the state-level indirect estimates of the 2001 Census. Though the overall convergence of fertility between Hindus and Muslims has been underway, significant regional variations persist.