Capital Account Liberalisation and Crises: A Meta-Analysis

Abstract

The present study is a critical survey of the literature on the impact of capital account liberalisation on both banking and currency crises. The objective of the study is to identify the publication bias and explore heterogeneity in the extant studies. For measuring the effect size of capital account liberalisation on banking and currency crises, an identification of relevant studies is done. Partial correlation coefficient is used for measuring standardised effect size. Funnel asymmetry test (FAT) and precision effect test (PET–PEE) are used for identifying publication selection bias. Meta-regression analysis (MRA) is done for exploring the heterogeneity in literature. I did meta-analysis on 121 t stats reported in 14 empirical papers. The results of the FAT–PET–PEE test indicate that publication bias does not exist in the literature. The study explains the heterogeneity of results reported in earlier studies. De facto measure, size of economy, inflation, real interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate overvaluation, current account balance to GDP and reserve money to GDP are the major impacting variables of both banking and currency crises. The probit approach is seen to be more appropriate in capturing the above relationship. JEL Codes: C1, F6, G01