Prognostic Value of Antithrombin Activity Levels in the Early Phase of Intensive Care: A 2-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

To investigate the relationship between antithrombin (AT) activity level and prognosis in patients requiring intensive care. Patients whose AT activity was measured within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission were enrolled for analysis. The primary endpoint was mortality at discharge. Prognostic accuracy was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and cox hazard regression analysis. Patients were divided into 6 groups based on predicted mortality, and a χ2 independence test was performed on the prognostic value of AT activity for each predicted mortality; P < .05 was considered significant. A total of 281 cases were analyzed. AT activity was associated with mortality at discharge (AT% [interquartile range, IQR]): survivor group, 69 (56-86) versus nonsurvivor group, 56 (44-73), P = .0003). We found an increasing risk for mortality in both the lowest level of AT activity (<50%; hazard ratio [HR] 2.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-4.89, P = .01) and the middle-low level of AT activity (≥ 50% and < 70%; HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.06-4.02, P = .03), compared with the normal AT activity level (≥ 70%). ROC curve analysis showed that the prediction accuracy of AT was an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 (cutoff 58%, sensitivity 61.4%, specificity 68.2%, P = .0003). AT activity was significantly prognostic in the group with 20% to 50% predicted mortality (AUC 0.74, sensitivity: 24.0%-55.5%, specificity: 83.3%-93.0%). An early decrease in AT activity level in ICU patients may be a predictor of mortality at discharge.