Development and Validation of a Concise Prediction Scoring System for Asian Lung Cancer Patients with EGFR Mutation Before Treatment

Abstract

Purpose We aimed to determine the epidermal growth factor receptor ( EGFR) genetic profile of lung cancer in Asians, and develop and validate a non-invasive prediction scoring system for EGFR mutation before treatment. Methods This was a single-center retrospective cohort study using data of patients with lung cancer who underwent EGFR detection (n = 1450) from December 2014 to October 2020. Independent predictors were filtered using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. According to the weight of each factor, a prediction scoring system for EGFR mutation was constructed. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques and temporally validated using prospectively collected data (n = 210) between November 2020 and June 2021.Results In 1450 patients with lung cancer, 723 single mutations and 51 compound mutations were observed in EGFR. Thirty-nine cases had two or more synchronous gene mutations. We developed a scoring system according to the independent clinical predictors and stratified patients into risk groups according to their scores: low-risk (score <4), moderate-risk (score 4-8), and high-risk (score >8) groups. The C-statistics of the scoring system model was 0.754 (95% CI 0.729-0.778). The factors in the validation group were introduced into the prediction model to test the predictive power of the model. The results showed that the C-statistics was 0.710 (95% CI 0.638-0.782). The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit showed that χ2 = 6.733, P = 0.566. Conclusions The scoring system constructed in our study may be a non-invasive tool to initially predict the EGFR mutation status for those who are not available for gene detection in clinical practice.