Globe 6

Abstract

Battelle Memorial Institute has initiated a research program to develop an improved set of systematic methods for assisting decision-makers in the identi fication and solution of socioeconomic problems. This study is focused in particular upon the inter dependence among diverse problem areas, many of which interactions cause attempted solutions to be counterproductive. With the realization that methods and techniques developed for analyzing problems at the world level can also be applied to a variety of problems at local or regional levels, Battelle has developed a preliminary version of a multiregion dynamic simulation model of the world to evaluate some of these interactions. At present, two hypo thetical regions representing the developed and the developing nations of the world are employed. The framework of the model permits the addition of more regions without reprogramming the entire simulation. The regions are coupled through flows of people (migration); pollution (diffusion); and natural resources, food, and manufactured goods (trade). The magnitudes and directions of these flows influence and are influenced by the relative economic, envi ronmental, and social conditions within each region. These conditions are indicated by material living standards, food ratios, crowding ratios, pollution levels, and natural resource reserves. The simulation is programmed on an interactive hybrid computer hardware-software system which permits a high level of interaction between man and models. Simulation gaming exercises can be conducted in which each model region is represented by one or more participants (decision-makers) who are respon sible for making all policy decisions for that region. Participants in an exercise of this type can quickly and effectively investigate the relative consequences of alternative decisions and evaluate alternative planning strategies (e.g., competition versus cooperation with other regions in a given economic situation). The initial runs of the model show, among other things, a high sensitivity to industrialization. For example, a sharp reduction in the quality of life can result from too rapid an increase in the level of industrial activity, which depletes natural resources and increases pollution. The model, how ever, is being developed and used more to gain insight into global problems than to make quantita tive forecasts. As the data base underlying the model becomes more accurate and complete, the use fulness of its output will increase. Part of the necessary information required by the model is being provided by a Battelle study of the world's resources. Early results indicate that, by planning now for the future, man's ingenuity in employing such steps as substitution and recycling can significantly alleviate the drain on the world's remaining resources. There are many problems associated with the develop ment of socioeconomic models. It is extremely difficult to model or forecast the affairs of man because one cannot foresee the remedial actions that man may take; neither can the new discoveries of man nor the whims of nature be foreseen. Man's ability to adapt has permitted him to survive many man-made and natural catastrophies that other animals could not survive. Even so, the world model is viewed as a means of testing the effectiveness of possible solutions to world problems which may otherwise over tax man's capacity to adapt. The next step would be to evaluate the potential for implementation of those solutions that appear possible.