A Guide to Using the Synthetic Control Method to Quantify the Effects of Shocks, Policies, and Shocking Policies

Abstract

Governments introduce various policies intending to improve the overall economy or to influence individual behavior. However, estimating the causal impact of these policies is challenging. I describe how the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) can be used in undergraduate econometrics or capstone courses to estimate the impact of economic policies. The SCM is a data-driven design that provides a systematic way of constructing a comparison group that looks very similar to the group implementing the policy. Thus, it allows us to estimate the policy’s impact by comparing the outcome variable’s post-policy path between the policy group and the comparison group. I review a broad range of policies and events that are analyzed using this method, briefly describe the theory behind the method, discuss various best practices, and provide a step-by-step implementation guide using the adoption of a value-added tax (VAT) by France as an example. JEL Classifications: C01, A1, A2