Long-Term Scarring from the Financial Crisis

Abstract

It is useful to look at the distinction between transitory and permanent effects of a crisis. Financial crises normally bring on a recession, and the output costs can be large, as Hoggarth and Saporta (2001) discuss. In the majority of cases since 1970 in the OECD countries output returns to its trend level and there is no permanent effect. However, there may have been a permanent scar on the level of output in Japan after its crisis in the early 1990s, making the crisis and subsequent recession much more costly. This may reflect the nature and length of the crisis, as the banking sector was left to flounder for some years before its rescue toward the end of the crisis period. This appears to have left a permanent scar because risk premia were subsequently higher, and real asset prices have not fully recovered.