Competitive Risk Analysis of Prognosis in Patients With Cecum Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background:The presence of competing risks means that the results obtained using the classic Cox proportional-hazards model for the factors affecting the prognosis of patients diagnosed with cecum cancer (CC) may be biased.Objective:The purpose of this study was to establish a competitive risk model for patients diagnosed with CC to evaluate the relevant factors affecting the prognosis of patients, and to compare the results with the classical COX proportional risk model.Methods:We extracted data on patients diagnosed with CC registered between 2004 and 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The univariate analysis utilized the cumulative incidence function and Gray’s test, while a multivariate analysis was performed using the Fine-Gray, cause-specific (CS), and Cox proportional-hazards models.Results:The 54463 eligible patients diagnosed with CC included 24387 who died: 12087 from CC and 12300 from other causes. The multivariate Fine-Gray analysis indicated that significant factors affecting the prognosis of patients diagnosed with CC include: age, race, AJCC stage, differentiation grade, tumor size, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and regional lymph nodes metastasis. Due to the presence of competitive risk events, COX model results could not provide accurate estimates of effects and false-negative results occurred. In addition, COX model misestimated the direction of association between regional lymph node metastasis and cumulative risk of death in patients diagnosed with CC. Competitive risk models tend to be more advantageous when analyzing clinical survival data with multiple endpoints.Conclusions:The present study can help clinicians to make better clinical decisions and provide patients diagnosed with CC with better support.