Comprehensive evaluation of urban development suitability based on constraints and development factors: A case study of the central urban area of Zhengzhou, China

Abstract

The overcapacity and overdevelopment of cities have led to various environmental hazards and resource depletion, making it crucial to evaluate the suitability of urban development. This research field provides scientific evidence and policy recommendations to improve land use quality and distribution. However, contemporary studies solely focus on construction land versus non-construction land competition, ignoring potential constraints from agriculture and ecology on parcel development. Using the land use situation of Zhengzhou City, this study comprehensively evaluated urban development suitability through hierarchical analysis, Delphi method, and eight-direction analysis. A multi-attribute overlay was applied with spatial restrictions from ecological protection and agricultural production, combined with urban expansion and development conditions. The results indicated that: (1) Ecological protection was critical for sustainable urban development, and areas like the Yellow River coast, northwest wetland, and southwest woodland were significant for ecological protection. High suitability areas for agricultural production were primarily located within the existing cultivated land. (2) Regarding urban expansion, the southeast of the city center was identified as the most suitable area, mainly covered by dryland. (3) Overall, the unsuitable, basically unsuitable, medium, suitable, and highly suitable areas for urban development covered 244, 921, 3024, 2224, and 944 km2, respectively. (4) The southeast-northwest direction showed prominent spatial characteristics for urban development suitability, while intensive development mode dominated the east-west direction of the city center. These findings provide significant guidance for land development and utilization, optimizing the spatial pattern, and formulating policies in Zhengzhou. Nevertheless, the weight calculation process presents a subjective factor that needs to be addressed in future research. More objective weight calculation results are necessary to achieve a more scientifically rigorous evaluation of urban development suitability.