Affiliation:
1. Department of Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland
Abstract
Background: Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes). Methods: Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method. Results: Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation – that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant. Conclusions: Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Medicine
Reference30 articles.
1. Statistics Finland. Official Statistics of Finland (OSF): Causes of death, http://www.stat.fi/til/ksyyt/2020/ksyyt_2020_2021-12-10_tie_001_en.html (2021, last accessed 19 May 2022).
2. Hauhio N, Puroharju T, Mölläri K. Perusterveydenhuollon avosairaanhodon vastaanoton asiakkaiden käytisyyt vuonna 2020. Verenpainetauti, ylähengitystieinfektiot ja selkäsärky olivat edelleen yleisimmät käyntisyyt lääkärin vastaanototolla, https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2021042820667 (2020, last accessed 19 May 2022).
3. Smoking and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Parallel Epidemics of the 21st Century
4. Sedentary Behaviors Increase Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Men
5. Global burden of blood-pressure-related disease, 2001
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献