The relative age and birth order effect in Japanese professional football

Abstract

This study examines how the probability of becoming a professional football player depends on the birth month (relative age effect) and birth order. These two factors are random and cannot be controlled by the athlete. If these factors influence the probability of the occurrence of top athletes, they not only create inequality but also close the disciplines to potentially talented athletes, lowering the level of competition. Therefore, in this study, we statistically clarified the presence or absence of “giftedness of life” by focusing on the birth month and birth order of professional football league players in the Japan Professional Football League (J-League). Our results indicate that the probability of the occurrence of J-League players decreases significantly with increasing birth order and birth month (180 days, from April onward). Moreover, we found that second-born players with an older brother had higher estimated salaries than players without siblings. These results reveal the characteristics of excellent football players and suggest the importance and direction of improvement in talent discovery and development in sports. Based on our results, we recommend improvements in the player training system to buffer the effects of relative age effect and birth order.