Estimating the Negative Credit Impacts of Police-involved Fatalities

Abstract

George Floyd's killing in Minneapolis spotlighted the role of police-involved fatalities that cause immeasurable harm to victims’ families and communities, weaken public trust in government and may lead to civil unrest. Police-involved fatalities place a financial burden on the cities, given the size of awards to victims’ families and the cost of implementing consent decrees. By quantifying the impact of fatal encounters on city credit rating, this study offers evidence for policymakers to make informed decisions regarding policing practices in their cities. Credit ratings incorporate third-party perceptions of local governments’ fiscal, economic, demographic, and political performance. The credit rating agency Moody's has noted “the potential financial impact of ongoing litigation costs” surrounding police-involved fatalities as a driver of downgrading ratings. Our article examines the impact of fatal encounters on the creditworthiness of the 150 largest US cities from 2000 to 2019. We observe a consistent negative correlation between police-involved fatalities and credit ratings among all the model estimates. These correlations remain statistically significant over time. We also estimate that the larger the share of non-white victims of police violence, the lower the cities’ credit ratings are.