The Effects of Risky Places, Motivated Offenders, and Social Disorganization on Sexual Victimization: A Microgeographic- and Neighborhood-Level Examination

Abstract

We test microgeographic (i.e., street segment) effects reflective of routine activities/lifestyle theories (e.g., the locations of sex offenders, gang members, drug houses, bars) and neighborhood-level (i.e., block group) effects consistent with social disorganization theory (e.g., socioeconomic disadvantage, residential mobility, racial heterogeneity) on the locations of sexual offenses within one rural and one suburban city. We employ multilevel modeling to examine neighborhood ( N = 41) and microgeographic ( N = 1,382) effects on sex offenses. Neighborhood context was associated with the locations of sex offenses in which disadvantage, concentrated poverty, racial heterogeneity, violent crime rates, and suburban (vs. rural) areas were positively associated with sex offense rates, whereas residential mobility had a negative effect on sex offense rates. Microgeographic context also explained variation in sex offense rates in which gang members, sex offenders, drug houses, and high population housing communities had positive effects on sexual assault rates, while controlling for spatially lagged effects. Finally, the effect of high-density housing communities was moderated by the level of disadvantage and racial heterogeneity. Neighborhood context and variables linked to exposure to crime operate differently in nonurban areas. Beyond considering community-based characteristics, contextual characteristics related to potential victims’ exposure to motivated offenders should focus on small spatial places.