The Impact of the Belt and Road Infrastructure Development on the Economic Growth of the Partner Countries

Abstract

As of July 2022, China has signed more than 200 cooperation agreements on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with 149 countries and 32 international organizations. This research aims to explore the impact of the infrastructure development of this initiative on the economic growth of countries participating in the BRI. Based on the panel data of 130 participating countries and 46 other countries from 2006 to 2019, the difference-in-difference (DID) model and multiple robustness tests were used for empirical evaluation. We found a positive correlation between BRI and the economic growth of BRI-cooperating countries. The heterogeneity test results show that BRI has a more prominent role in promoting the economic growth of upper-middle-income and high-income countries with relatively good industrial foundations. The impact of improved infrastructure development through BRI accounted for 88.42% of the total mediating effect, which is much more significant than promoting industrial upgrading and enhancing innovation capacity. These results support the view that BRI should continue to advance infrastructure development to boost the economic growth of developing countries.