Co-movement Between NIFTY Spot and Futures Indices: A Time–Frequency Analysis Using Wavelet

Abstract

Appreciation of the impact of spot and futures markets on each other and their respective function in price discovery is the central idea of this study’s microstructure design. The volatility spillover and co-movement between the NIFTY spot and futures indices during the period of 2011–2021 are investigated. Maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT)-based DCC GARCH and Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) models have been applied to understand the dynamic associations and spillovers between returns of NIFTY spot and futures indices. To uncover the time-varying vibrant communications among the markets at diverse scales, a wavelet coherence technique has been used. The study found that index prices have a strong and significant dynamic conditional correlation at all scales, and there is diffusion of news in the short as well as long terms. The study uses novel granular wavelet-based research models to decode time–frequency varying behavioural patterns of spot and futures stock indices of India. It highlights the relationships between variables of interest over a range of timescales and allows market participants to rapidly evaluate their investment horizons at varied frequency band scales when building portfolio choices. Therefore, the study offers added understanding to investors and risk managers. JEL Classifications: G11, G12, G13, G14