Symposium. The Directional Theory of Issue Voting: I

Abstract

The directional theory of issue voting - a new theory proposed by Rabinowitz and Macdonald - has, in a series of analyses, been shown to outperform the old Downsian proximity theory. This result has a very practical consequence: according to the directional theory, a centrist party cannot expect to receive strong electoral support. Thus, in the practice of politics, the directional theory means conflict, not consensus. In their analyses, Rabinowitz, Macdonald and Listhaug use the mean of all the respondents' party placement (a constant) as a proxy for the party's position. However, using a more adequate analysis, where the party position along a scale varies between the respondents (i.e. is a variable), the results become different. The directional theory is not without its merits as a new theory of issue voting. Nevertheless, the old proximity theory is still the most powerful theory within electoral research.