Taking intra-executive politics into public arenas? Analysis of presidential speeches in six semi-presidential European countries

Abstract

Although public communication is a key aspect of political leadership, there is no systematic comparative research on the speeches of presidents in European semi-presidential countries. In such regimes, constitutionally weaker presidents are tempted to use the public podium for increasing their influence, potentially igniting intra-executive quarrels that debilitate decision-making. To gauge this general dynamic, this article analyses the official speeches of Czech, Finnish, French, Polish, Portuguese and Romanian presidents between 2000 and 2020. It first explores the ‘politicalness’ of presidents’ public activity through the general tone and the share of references to economy in the speeches. It then examines how societal conditions, party-political dynamics and public opinion impact the tone and content of presidential addresses. Presidents largely adopt a positive or neutral tone even during cohabitation or economic downturn, but occasionally intervene in issues under the government’s jurisdiction. The results highlight the complex and precarious nature of semi-presidentialism.