Co-ordinating agricultural adaptation: Seasonal forecasts and their influence on rural agricultural rhythms in Ethiopia

Abstract

Seasonal forecasts are fast being popularised as a key tool in the enablement of seasonal climate adaptation, particularly in agricultural practice. Derived from advances in meteorological science and technology, a seasonal forecast introduces a novel temporal framework that seeks to coordinate the rhythms of agricultural practice against a modelled future. However, a ‘season’ is comprised of a complex knit of temporalities, differentiated across those actors that comprise the networked pathways, and through which, seasonal forecast information must be communicated before it can be enacted in practice. Such temporal barriers to the use of seasonal forecast information in agricultural decision-making have been less commonly and critically assessed across the literature on climate service use. Utilising interview data collected from a variety of actors across one communication pathway in the Sidama Region of Ethiopia, this article appraises the seasonal forecast as a novel temporal framework and describes how it has become embedded and extended through rhythms of agricultural practice. Although seasonal forecasts are seen to have some coordinative effect, we find that the seasonal forecasts are disconnected from extant temporal frameworks that govern existing rhythms of local agricultural practice. This limits their potential use in adaptation decision-making. We summarise key lessons learned for the development and communication of seasonal forecasts, which must more meaningfully account for the multiplicity of temporalities that influence agricultural practice.