A Dynamic Accounting Model of Intrametropolitan Household Relocation

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the use of a dynamic accounting framework of the kinetic type for modelling the intrametropolitan relocation of households. Households are classified into five different categories, and each is subject to a transition matrix, the elements of which are functions of the changing availability of housing stock and job supply, and the different preferences for these of the different households categories. A three-zone concentric configuration was used, and the model was calibrated for the South-East standard region with the use of data for 1961, 1966, 1971, and 1976. The model was then run until 1991 with alternative combinations of projections of strategic exogenous variables such as transport costs, job supply, and housing stock availability. Although the model appears oversensitive to the changes in the number of households in each zone and arrives at an equilibrium distribution quickly, it suggests a research strategy to determine the nature of the elements of the transition matrices. The model also illustrates that it is possible to use the dynamic accounting framework of kinetic theory to embody any given hypothesis of movement.