Performance Modelling of Health-care Service Delivery in Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Nigeria Using Queuing Theory

Abstract

The queuing theory is the mathematical approach to the analysis of waiting lines in any setting where arrivals rate of the subject is faster than the system can handle. It is applicable to the health care setting where the systems have excess capacity to accommodate random variation. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the waiting, arrival and service times of patients at AAUA Health- setting and to model a suitable queuing system by using simulation technique to validate the model. This study was conducted at AAUA Health- Centre Akungba Akoko. It employed analytical and simulation methods to develop a suitable model. The collection of waiting time for this study was based on the arrival rate and service rate of patients at the Outpatient Centre. The data was calculated and analyzed using Microsoft Excel. Based on the analyzed data, the queuing system of the patient current situation was modelled and simulated using the PYTHON software. The result obtained from the simulation model showed that the mean arrival rate of patients on Friday week1 was lesser than the mean service rate of patients (i.e. 5.33> 5.625 (λ > µ). What this means is that the waiting line would be formed which would increase indefinitely; the service facility would always be busy. The analysis of the entire system of the AAUA health centre showed that queue length increases when the system is very busy. This work therefore evaluated and predicted the system performance of AAUA Health-Centre in terms of service delivery and propose solutions on needed resources to improve the quality of service offered to the patients visiting this health centre.