Evaluation and ways to reduce uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission and seqestration

Abstract

Background: The transport industry is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and is inevitably influenced by the environmental agenda. Aim: Estimation of the uncertainty and develop ways to reduce uncertainty when accounting for emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. Methods: The method of analyzing the statistical causes of uncertainty in the measurement and accounting of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases, as well as the analysis of literary sources, suggests ways to reduce uncertainty. Results: The sources of uncertainty in the implementation of the climate change transport adaptation plan obtained when taking into account emissions or removals of greenhouse gases were identified. At the same time, objectively determined causes of uncertainty associated with shortcomings in the data, models used and analyzed samples, as well as causes of uncertainty based on subjective assumptions, are identified. Of practical significance are the formulated ways to reduce uncertainty, based on improving the conceptualization, improving the model structure, increasing the representativeness of the data, as well as using more accurate measurement methods. Conclusion: Ways to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of the climate change transport adaptation plan based on subjective parameters are to introduce adaptive management and develop learning as an iterative process, as learning becomes a key component of activity in a changing climate.