Local identification of persistent cold air pool conditions in the Great Hungarian Plain

Abstract

Cold air pool (CAP) is a winter-time, anticyclonic weather event: a cold air layer confined by the topography and warm air aloft. If its duration is more than one day, then it is called persistent cold air pool (PCAP). CAPs are mainly examined in small basins and valleys. Fewer studies pay attention to PCAPs in much larger basins (with an area of more than 50 000 km2), and it is not evident how effective the existing numerical definitions are in cases of extensive PCAP events. A possible method of identifying PCAPs in a large basin is to identify PCAP weather conditions at different measuring sites across the basin. If there are PCAP weather conditions at most of the sites, then it is likely to be an extensive PCAP. In this work, we examine which of the documented CAP definitions can be used for reliable local detection of CAP conditions. Daily weather reports and meteorological data from two locations in the 52 000 km2 sized Great Hungarian Plain have been used to obtain a reference set of days with PCAP weather conditions during two consecutive winter months. Several numerical CAP definitions were compared for their performance in recognizing the presence of PCAP weather conditions using radiosonde measurements and reanalysis data. The lowest error was produced by using the heat deficit (HD) method. So this is considered the most suitable method for local identification of PCAPs in the Great Hungarian Plain.