Analysis of the Relationship between Almond Production and Almond Price with the Koyck Model

Abstract

In the current study, the Koyck model was used to determine the effect of almond prices on almond production in Türkiye. In the study, the period of 1970-2021 was examined and almond production was used as the dependent variable and almond price was used as the independent variable. According to the results of the analysis, the correlation between almond prices and the amount of almond production was found to be 0.952. The study determined that almond production is influenced by almond prices, and that any change in almond prices can lead to a noticeable change in almond production within a time frame of 2.67 years. On the other hand, it was determined that for the examined period, a one TL increase in almond prices in the current year led to a production increase of 0.002771 tons, while a one TL increase in almond prices in the previous period resulted in a production increase of 0.002015057 tons.