Research and comparison of pavement performance prediction based on neural networks and fusion transformer architecture

Abstract

<abstract> <p>The decision-making process for pavement maintenance from a scientific perspective is based on accurate predictions of pavement performance. To improve the rationality of pavement performance indicators, comprehensive consideration of various influencing factors is necessary. To this end, four typical pavement performance indicators (i.e., Rutting Depth, International Roughness Index, Longitudinal Cracking, and Alligator Cracking) were predicted using the Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database. Two types of data, i.e., local input variables and global input variables, were selected, and S-ANN and L-ANN models were constructed using a fully connected neural network. A comparative analysis of the predictive outcomes reveals the superior optimization of the L-ANN model. Subsequently, by incorporating structures such as self-attention mechanism, a novel predictive approach based on the Transformer architecture was proposed. The objective is to devise a more accurate predictive methodology for pavement performance indices, with the goal of guiding pavement maintenance and management efforts. Experimental results indicate that, through comparative analysis of three quantitative evaluation metrics (root mean square error, mean absolute error, coefficient of determination), along with visual scatter plots, the predictive model employing the fused Transformer architecture demonstrates higher robustness and accuracy within the domain of pavement performance prediction when compared to the L-ANN model. This outcome substantiates the efficacy and superiority of the model in terms of predictive performance, establishing it as a reliable tool for accurately reflecting the evolution of asphalt pavement performance. Furthermore, it furnishes a theoretical reference for determining optimal preventive maintenance timing for pavements.</p> </abstract>